Penn State’s defense made a statement in a 38-10 win against SMU in the opening round of the College Football Playoff.
The offense was relegated to backup status as the Nittany Lions scored twice on interception returns and set up another short field that led to a touchdown late in the first half. Ahead 28-0 at the break, Penn State cruised into the quarterfinals against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
This same defense is the reason why the Nittany Lions are favored to advance into the national semifinals and potentially capture the program’s first national championship since 1986.
But the offense will have to show up eventually. While the running game carried the load against SMU, quarterback Drew Allar will have to step up his game if the Nittany Lions hope to beat teams such as Oregon, Ohio State, Notre Dame or Texas.
Boise State’s recipe for an upset calls for more and more of star running back Ashton Jeanty, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting after a memorable junior season.
Here are the keys to the Fiesta Bowl:
Can Penn State stop Ashton Jeanty?
No one has, though Penn State has the pieces to slow down one of the most prolific backs in Bowl Subdivision history.
Jeanty heads into the postseason with an FBS-best 2,497 yards, within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record. He’s cracked the 200-yard mark six times, including in each of the past two games, and has gained at least 128 yards in every game against Bowl Subdivision competition.
In one game that parallels the Fiesta Bowl, Jeanty ran for 192 yards and three scores on 7.7 yards per carry in the Broncos’ 37-34 loss to Oregon in non-conference play.
Five opponents have gone over 100 rushing yards against Penn State, led by Southern California’s 189 yards and a score in the Nittany Lions’ narrow win back in October. PSU ranks seventh nationally in yards allowed per game and is tied for third in allowing just seven scores on the ground.
Can Boise make Allar do it all?
The Broncos’ run defense is one of the best in the Group of Five. Against the Ducks, the Broncos gave up just 109 yards and a score on 3.1 yards per carry. The only team to run the ball effectively on Boise was UNLV, in fact, which went for a combined 405 yards in the two matchups between the pair during the regular season – accounting for more than a quarter of the Broncos’ total rushing yardage allowed.
From a defensive perspective, Boise’s clearest path to an upset is to slow down the Nittany Lions’ passing game and force Allar to carry the weight on offense.
This could easily backfire; Allar can be unpredictable, but he’s an all-conference talent with the arm strength and pocket presence to play at the next level. He’s also struggling to get his production back on track: Allar is a combined 50 of 87 for 524 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in the Nittany Lions’ past three games.
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Can Penn State’s pass rush be stopped?
The Nittany Lions’ run defense ranks near the top of the FBS despite a lack of beefy interior linemen. Instead, you can give more credit to the scheme and a consistent approach along the defensive front for this group’s success.
But there is speed to burn on the edges, where standouts such as All-America defensive lineman Abdul Carter could make things very difficult for Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen. Again, though, this is something the Broncos do well: Boise is tied for first with Ohio State among all playoff teams in allowing only 12 sacks.