It’s the most miserable time of the year for those on the bubble.
When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, rankings were released weekly, giving potential teams an idea of where their chances stood in qualifying. Now that it’s hoops season, it’s back to having no idea whether a team is in or out at any given point. It’s a fight for your team’s season each time you step on the court.
While there’s no official locks for the tournament until conference tournament season, the top 16 reveal over the weekend assured the virtual locks for the big dance. There are other teams that seem highly likely to make the NCAA men’s tournament along with the auto-bids from conference tournament champions, and then there’s a crop of squads that are teetering making the field of 68.
With Selection Sunday now less than a month away, it’s time to take a look at the teams on the bubble of qualifying for this year’s March Madness, along with their resume and where they stand in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
Brigham Young
Record: 18-8 (9-6). NET Ranking: 31. Quad 1 record: 4-7. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: vs. Baylor, at West Virginia, vs. Kansas
Bad losses: at Providence
The Cougars won three consecutive games and seven of nine, including the Tuesday thumping they handed to Kansas. BYU has avoided bad losses in league play and its NET ranking is solid, Up next is a trip to Arizona that will provide an opportunity to garner another significant win to boost its profile.
Wake Forest
Record: 19-7 (11-4). NET Ranking: 58. Quad 1 record: 2-6. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: Michigan (neutral), North Carolina, at SMU
Bad losses: vs. Florida State
Wake Forest got an important Quad 1 victory on Saturday at fellow bubble member SMU that boosted the resume of a team with a low NET ranking and suffered a home loss to Florida State three days before. The Demon Deacons must take advantage of an upcoming three-game slate against the bottom half of the ACC before a second meeting with Duke.
Virginia Commonwealth
Record: 20-5 (10-2). NET Ranking: 35. Quad 1 record: 1-1. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Dayton, at Saint Joseph’s.
Bad losses: vs. Seton Hall (neutral), at Saint Louis.
With the best NET ranking among the bubble teams, the Rams have a case to make the tournament without winning the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re currently one game behind conference George Mason and face the Patriots at home Saturday. A loss to Seton Hall looms large with the limited Quad 1 chances, so VCU needs to take control of what is a relative easy rest of the schedule − four of the remaining six games are against Quad 3 or 4 opponents.
Arkansas
Record: 15-10 (4-8). NET Ranking: 43. Quad 1 record: 3-8. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Michigan (neutral), at Kentucky
Bad losses: at LSU
Give John Calipari credit; Arkansas has shown some fight recently with two Quad 1 wins in the last five games and narrow losses to top teams. However, another tough week awaits the Razorbacks with a trip to Auburn and then a home game against Missouri, which soundly won the first matchup between the teams last month.
San Diego State
Record: 18-6 (11-4). NET Ranking: 50. Quad 1 record: 4-4. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Creighton (neutral), vs. Houston (neutral)
Bad losses: vs. UNLV
The Mountain West has taken a step back this season, meaning the league record isn’t as impressive for San Diego State. However, the Aztecs have won seven of their last eight following a bad loss to UNLV. Saturday’s road game against Utah State is a big opportunity to impress the committee as its currently the last Quad 1 chance of the regular season.
Oklahoma
Record: 16-10 (3-10). NET Ranking: 52. Quad 1 record: 4-8. Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Arizona (neutral), vs. Michigan (neutral), vs. Louisville (neutral).
Bad losses: vs. LSU.
The Sooners earned three Quad 1 wins in the middle of December and were unbeaten before SEC play. But they’ve struggled in the first season of their new conference. A five-game losing streak, including a late meltdown at home to LSU, has pushed Oklahoma from comfortably in to out. There are plenty of Quad 1 wins available on the rest of the schedule. Somehow, the Sooners have to find them.
North Carolina
Record: 15-11 (8-6). NET Ranking: 47. Quad 1 record: 1-10. Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), SMU.
Bad losses: vs. Stanford,
Only one Quad 1 win among 11 opportunities is weighing down the Tar Heels. A bad home loss to Stanford doesn’t help either. There are winnable games out there before their regular-season finale against Duke. Unfortunately, they don’t add much to the ledger and a loss only worsens the resume.
Xavier
Record: 17-10 (9-7). NET Ranking: 54. Quad 1 record: 1-8. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut.
Bad losses: at TCU, at Georgetown.
After a slow start to conference play, Xavier is starting to get rolling with an 8-3 record in its last 11 games. However, there aren’t any Quad 1 chances left for the Musketeers, meaning it can’t afford losses and needs a solid showing in the Big East tournament to impress. The NET ranking is also not helping.
Georgia
Record: 16-10 (4-9). NET Ranking: 39. Quad 1 record: 2-10. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. St. John’s (neutral), vs. Kentucky.
Bad losses: None.
Hampered by multiple losing streaks, Georgia has fallen out of the bracket. There’s no bad losses on the resume, but failing to convert only two of its dozen Quad 1 matchups makes things challenging. A daunting run of Auburn and Florida awaits the Bulldogs next. They’ve got to find a win probably 2-3 wins before the league tournament to stay in the discussion.