There’s no such thing as a truly safe pick in the NFL draft.
With so many variables at play as players make a sizable jump in their careers, the trajectory for every prospect comes with little certainty. But whether it’s due to subpar production or unrealized potential, several future picks annually stand out from their peers by sparking particularly divisive evaluations. It’s up to team decision-makers, then, to weigh their risk tolerance against the payoff for any particular player, who can either make franchises look foolish either for drafting them or passing on them.
With this year’s class igniting several notable debates among big-name players, here are the 10 biggest boom-or-bust prospects in this year’s NFL draft, ranked by just how much risk – and upside – they entail:
10. Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech
As a likely mid-round draft pick, Tuten might not be as risky as other players who will necessitate a heavier investment of draft capital. But the volatility in his game is readily evident.
A transfer from North Carolina A&T, the former track star averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season and ripped off the fastest 40-yard dash time (4.32 seconds) of any running back at the NFL Scouting Combine. Not just an outstanding linear athlete, Tuten can keep runs alive by making defenders miss in the open field and fighting through contact.
But it should come as no surprise that a player with singular explosiveness has a problem with patience. Rather than letting blocks develop in front of him, Tuten too often is content to bounce the play to the outside. That approach won’t be tenable at the next level, so the 5-9, 206-pound ball carrier will need to be more decisive and take what’s given to him on the inside. If he can manage that, he could stay on the field regularly while making his mark as one of the league’s pre-eminent big-play threats. But if he struggles to adapt – or continues to be plagued by fumbles – he might end up as an all-or-nothing runner.
9. Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina
If not for a torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in September, Revel could easily be in the conversation for the first round. The 6-2, 194-pounder evokes comparisons to Richard Sherman and Antonio Cromartie as a smothering coverage presence who’s at his most comfortable jockeying with receivers, whether that’s at the line of scrimmage or the catch point. Between his hyperphysical approach and penchant for finding the ball, Revel can handle either zone or man assignments.
But even though Revel is expected to be ready in time for training camp, his injury can’t be ignored. Beyond sparking concerns about his ability to stay on the field, it also robbed him of the opportunity to polish his game. Like most taller corners, Revel has lapses when he can get too upright, leaving him susceptible to being shaken in man coverage by quicker receivers. And with a significant jump in quality of competition ahead, flags could follow him early if he doesn’t dial back his handsy approach.
8. James Pearce Jr., DE, Tennessee
A fixture of way-too-early mock drafts one year ago, Pearce now might be teetering on the edge of the first round. What happened? The 6-5, 245-pounder hardly disappointed last season, notching his second consecutive first-team All-Southeastern Conference honor after tallying 13 tackles for loss and 7 ½ sacks. Rather, Pearce’s final showings only underscored the ways in which he would come to be seen as a polarizing prospect for teams.
There’s no questioning Pearce’s explosiveness off the line of scrimmage, which allows him to zip past blockers or jolt them back when they’re on their heels. Yet that same aggressiveness at the start of his rush can also prove problematic at the end, as Pearce struggles to regain control in space and wrap up quarterbacks or ball carriers who should be easily in his grasp. And without a runway to the passer, Pearce can have trouble bending to complete the play or disengaging blockers. With lingering concerns about whether he can hold up against the run, Pearce will have to show growth as a pass rusher to properly harness his considerable upside.
7. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
A 6-4, 219-pound target with an extensive track record of bailing out his quarterback sounds like the kind of player who would have a relatively high floor. And while McMillan is surehanded and can win in multiple ways, there are critical concerns about the core of his game that could go a long way toward determining his effectiveness.
As someone able to consistently win in college thanks to his massive catch-radius and ability to box out, McMillan regularly was content to overpower defensive backs rather than free himself of them. That tendency has left questions of whether he can consistently create separation when working downfield, with his rudimentary route tree only exacerbating the issue. And while he can thrive in the short to intermediate game by securing slants and creating mismatches, it will be a tall ask to expect his future quarterback to repeatedly trust him on contested catch scenarios when looking deep.
6. Darien Porter, CB, Iowa State
A sixth-year breakout with limited experience at his position might seem like an inherent contradiction. But after flipping from wide receiver to cornerback midway through his career at Iowa State and only becoming a starter in his final campaign, Porter stands out as a tricky yet tantalizing prospect.
There might not be a better overall athlete at the position in this year’s draft than the 6-3, 195-pounder, who ran a 4.30-second 40-yard dash and had a 10-foot-11 broad jump. And with his receiver background on display whenever he closes in on the ball, it’s easy to see why some envision him as the kind of supersized playmaker that Seattle Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen was as a Pro Bowl selection in his 2022 rookie campaign.
But Porter’s inexperience looms over his draft stock and his acclimation period to the NFL. With underdeveloped instincts and a scarcity of work in man coverage, he could be exploited by crafty route runners early in his career. His optimal outcome is landing with a zone-heavy team that will allow him to work on the finer points of coverage more gradually. Growing pains, however, appear inevitable.
5. Walter Nolen, DT, Mississippi
At times, it’s easy to see why Nolen was once ranked right alongside Travis Hunter as one of the best college football recruits in the country. After transferring from Texas A&M, the 6-4, 296-pounder broke out as a consensus All-American last season with 14 tackles for loss and 6 ½ sacks. He gets offensive linemen off balance from the snap with his explosive burst, and he’s equally adept at shooting gaps and finishing plays off in the backfield.
Still, the flashy contributions only tell part of the story. When Nolen isn’t snapping past a blocker right away, his results can be a little more uneven, as he still needs to develop counter moves and improve his overall hand usage. Without an ability to figure out a way to win later on downs, he could continue to run hot and cold throughout games.
4. Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
With the ball in his hands, Burden is as big of a threat as any wide receiver in this class. The former five-star recruit has a knack for making would-be tacklers miss in the open field with his quick cuts, but the 6-0, 206-pounder also isn’t afraid to get physical when fighting for position in traffic or lowering a shoulder into defenders.
Yet at this point in his career, Burden is far more of a general offensive weapon than a finished product at wideout. Missouri’s scheme went to great lengths to get him open in space, feeding him a heavy dose of targets near the line of scrimmage while also trying to create favorable matchups downfield. The result is that Burden is neither sudden nor precise as a route runner, and he might require manufactured touches to be involved in the game plan early in his career. His shortcomings can all be addressed, and he shows upside as someone comfortable tracking deep shots and hauling in throws away from his frame. But after averaging just 11.1 yards per catch in 2024’s uninspiring follow-up to his second-team All-American campaign, Burden has to demonstrate that he’s ready to take on more than what the Tigers’ offense afforded him.
3. Cam Ward, QB, Miami (Fla.)
Of course the expected No. 1 pick has to be on the list. From his previous stops at Incarnate Word and Washington State to his breakout season with the Hurricanes, Ward built his game off an embrace of decisions others might eschew. The 6-2, 219-pound passer consistently lives on the edge with his attacking mentality, firing the ball into tight windows and looking to capitalize on opportunities when things break down.
While he no doubt will be asked to tap into his playmaking streak in the pros, Ward might face a significantly lower tolerance for the kind of throws that could easily become turnovers. As he extends plays – and Ward is quite good at avoiding sacks and taxing defenses with his scrambling ability – he becomes prone to searching for chunk plays rather than taking what’s afforded to him. And though he’s instinctive within structure from the pocket, his proclivity for holding onto the ball until the last possible moment can be his undoing. For a player often compared to Patrick Mahomes thanks to his dynamic ability to force defenses out of their comfort zone, the goal should be to emulate the more discerning, quick-trigger phase of the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback’s career in recent years than his wild introduction to the league.
2. Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas A&M
The high-end traits are all there. The production isn’t. The dichotomy between what Stewart can achieve as a pass rusher and what he has managed to yield so far has stirred significant debate about his value in a deep class of edge rushers. Ultimately, it will be on NFL general managers to stack him up against his more accomplished peers and determine whether he can translate his considerable athleticism.
Thus far, the disconnect has been impossible to ignore. The 6-5, 267-pound former five-star recruit managed just 1 ½ sacks in each of his three seasons in College Station. While that can partially be attributed to his usage – the Aggies deployed him in a manner that didn’t afford him as many true edge reps – he also exhibited a concerning habit for missing tackles, often simply falling off the ball carrier when he was in position to make a play. With his ability to capitalize off his quick burst off the line of scrimmage and powerful yet fluid movements, Stewart should at least be able to generate pressure with some regularity. But a potential top-20 pick is going to be expected to finish plays, and Stewart might be defined by his ability to grow in that area.
1. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
He might be the NFL draft’s most compelling conundrum. At 6-2 and 217 pounds with breakaway speed as a runner and superlative arm strength, he can devastate defenses when everything is clicking. And with nearly 500 total yards and four total touchdowns in a thrilling September win over Georgia, Milroe has shown he can stand tall against even the stoutest competition.
But the expected leap in his second season as a starter never fully materialized, and instead erratic play – including a late-season unraveling against unranked Oklahoma that dashed the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes – became the hallmark of his 2024 campaign. Shaky mechanics are to blame for much of the problem, as Milroe can be wildly off the mark at all three levels when he’s rushing things. And when he’s not going to his first read, there’s a level of discomfort to his play that’s reflected by a lack of touch on his throws and an eagerness to bail on clean pockets. There’s no questioning his distinct value in this class as a developmental passer, but there’s substantial work to be done before he can be fully trusted to handle NFL defenses.